Eric Bailly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eric Bailly's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €845k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1236 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €416k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength down (-303 Elo); relative output up 228% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -78% to -47%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1236 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | CB | 15 | 1236 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1503 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 12 | 618 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1525 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 10 | 838 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1549 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 5 | 336 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1295 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 539 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1444 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 4 | 217 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1673 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 12 | 915 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1548 | 1741 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 4 | 148 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1636 | 1720 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 12 | 639 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1593 | 1669 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 13 | 1000 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1592 | 1747 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2060 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1534 | 1694 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2023 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1581 | 1630 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 10 | 853 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1595 | 1589 | 1.18 |
| 2014/15 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 5 | 355 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1601 | 1532 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 5 | 476 | 0 | 1 | 1620 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 341 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 231 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 11 | 991 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2016/17 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 616 | 1 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1690 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2022 | 34 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Rasim Tagirbekov Premier Liga · 2016 | 32 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Leandro Castán Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Eliaquim Mangala Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Vincent Laurini Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €1.1M | €150k | fell |
| Steven Whittaker Premier League · 2016 | 32 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Pavle Ninkov Ligue 1 · 2015 | 30 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Rovérsio Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €800k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Real Oviedo | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Villarreal | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Besiktas | Villarreal | Free / loan | €3.4M |
| 4 Sept 2023 | Man Utd | Besiktas | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Marseille | Man Utd | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 24 Aug 2022 | Man Utd | Marseille | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Villarreal | Man Utd | €38.0M | €8.0M |
| 29 Jan 2015 | Espanyol | Villarreal | €5.7M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.