Xeka

31 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Portugal
GD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal · Foot: both · Height: 185 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€273k – €770k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€285k – €857k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€289k – €563k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€485k – €584k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€273k – €770k
Model value (performance-implied)€285k – €857k
Projected value (24 months)€289k – €563k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Xeka's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (654 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average23.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €479k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
654 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
24 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1305
Opponent strength
1386
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€289k – €563k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -58% to -30%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 654 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalCM1265421%100.140.23138613050.58
2024/25GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalCM1494631%110.190.22131213020.51
2022/23Stade Rennais FCLigue 1DM855116%000.000.06143715620.82
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1CM23162147%310.220.17141215400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1CM33118635%120.230.17140616100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1CM1770628%000.000.11141915160.82
2018/19LOSC LilleLigue 1CM27226566%200.080.13147615430.82
2017/18Dijon FCOLigue 1CM17139541%230.320.40148313990.85
2017/18LOSC LilleLigue 1CM1140%000.000.24142313720.85
2016/17LOSC LilleLigue 1CM13112833%120.240.23141314480.88
2016/17SC BragaLiga PortugalCM1188429%010.100.16133213860.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille7436001705
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille179101727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille6468001580
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille3117001739

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Knowledge Musona
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
30€800k€800kflat
Damien Marcq
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
31€600k€400kfell
Tim Matthys
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
30€750k€600kfell
Fábio Espinho
Liga Portugal · 2016
31€750k€500kfell
Dragan Paljic
Eredivisie · 2013
30€700k€300kfell
Charles
Super Lig · 2016
31€800k€300kfell
Nemanja Miletic
Premier Liga · 2021
30€500k€200kfell
Alan Dzagoev
Premier Liga · 2022
32€1.5M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Aug 2024Al-SaddEstorilFree / loan€3.0M
1 May 2024Without ClubAl-SaddUnknown€3.0M
9 Aug 2023Stade RennaisWithout ClubUnknown€6.0M
21 Sept 2022Without ClubStade RennaisUnknown€9.0M
1 Jul 2022LilleWithout ClubUnknown€9.0M
30 Jun 2018DijonLilleFree / loan€5.5M
31 Aug 2017LilleDijonFree / loan€1.3M
1 Jul 2017BragaLille€5.0M€1.3M
30 Jun 2017LilleBragaFree / loan€1.3M
31 Jan 2017BragaLilleFree / loan€300k
20 Oct 2016Braga BBragaUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2016SC CovilhãBraga BFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2014Braga BSC CovilhãUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2013P. Ferreira U19Braga BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Valencia U19P. Ferreira U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Gondomar Sub-17Valencia U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Gondomar Sub-15Gondomar Sub-17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Paços Yth.Gondomar Sub-15Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.