Soner Dikmen

33 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Türkiye
Antalyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€192k – €674k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€236k – €427k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€189k – €490k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€439k – €234k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€192k – €674k
Model value (performance-implied)€236k – €427k
Projected value (24 months)€189k – €490k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Soner Dikmen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2159 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 36

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average18.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €378k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2159 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1139
Opponent strength
1264
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€189k – €490k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -50% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AntalyasporSuper LigCM28215971%400.170.21126411390.40
2024/25AntalyasporSuper LigCM29164451%400.220.22128511810.39
2023/24KonyasporSuper LigCM37321994%100.030.07130212840.45
2022/23KonyasporSuper LigCM32252678%510.210.18129613550.50
2021/22KonyasporSuper LigCM37253774%340.250.24125113300.42
2020/21Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigDM34242867%100.040.07129111300.37
2019/20Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigDM842214%000.000.12138112060.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingKonyaspor3204001399

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tim Smolders
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
34€400k€200kfell
Jean Barrientos
Super League 1 · 2023
33€400k€200kfell
Erik Sabo
Super Lig · 2022
31€725k€600kflat
Pedrinho
Super Lig · 2024
32€600k€600kflat
Nuri Sahin
Super Lig · 2021
33€1.0M€1.0Mflat
İbrahim Akdağ
Super Lig · 2022
31€675k€150kfell
Daan Rienstra
Super League 1 · 2024
32€250k€250kflat
Juan Domínguez
Super League 1 · 2021
31€400k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Jul 2024KonyasporAntalyasporFree / loan€1.7M
5 Jul 2021GenclerbirligiKonyasporFree / loan€550k
30 Jun 2019Kastamonu 1966GenclerbirligiFree / loan€200k
3 Aug 2018GenclerbirligiKastamonu 1966Free / loan€200k
30 Jun 2018HacettepeGenclerbirligiFree / loan€200k
21 Jul 2017GenclerbirligiHacettepeFree / loan€200k
20 Jul 2017HacettepeGenclerbirligiFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2017GöztepeHacettepeFree / loan€200k
12 Jul 2016HacettepeGöztepeFree / loan€200k
25 Aug 2012G.Birligi U21HacettepeFree / loanData unavailable
13 Sept 2011Hacettepe YthG.Birligi U21Free / loanData unavailable
30 Aug 2007G.Birligi YthHacettepe YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Soner Dikmen · MoneyballAI