Thiago Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thiago Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 68.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 41.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €34k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 576 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €255k – €542k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -33% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 576 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 42: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 8 | 576 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1259 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2528 | 74% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1563 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2352 | 69% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1571 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2651 | 78% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 1551 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 23 | 1938 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1553 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1574 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1427 | 1779 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2079 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1442 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2115 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1449 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2385 | 70% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1415 | 1757 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2622 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1421 | 1748 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 2309 | 68% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1423 | 1690 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2386 | 70% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1465 | 1720 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 22 | 1900 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1434 | 1708 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 218 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 641 | 0 | 0 | 1707 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 9 | 757 | 0 | 1 | 1666 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 218 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 567 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 616 | 0 | 0 | 1690 |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 522 | 0 | 0 | 1729 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2015/16 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 501 | 1 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 568 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2013/14 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 801 | 2 | 0 | 1623 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth McAuley Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 40 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Vieirinha Super League 1 · 2024 | 38 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Kolo Touré Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 36 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Avraam Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2020 | 36 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Eliseu Liga Portugal · 2018 | 35 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Christian Maggio Serie A · 2018 | 36 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Mario Yepes Serie A · 2013 | 37 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Rolando Liga Portugal · 2021 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Porto | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2026 | Fluminense | Porto | Free / loan | €600k |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Chelsea | Fluminense | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Aug 2020 | PSG | Chelsea | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 14 Jul 2012 | AC Milan | PSG | €42.0M | €38.0M |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Fluminense | AC Milan | €10.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jan 2007 | Dinamo Moscow | Fluminense | €2.0M | €3.5M |
| 31 Dec 2006 | Fluminense | Dinamo Moscow | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jan 2006 | Dinamo Moscow | Fluminense | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jan 2005 | Porto | Dinamo Moscow | €3.5M | Data unavailable |
| 13 Sept 2004 | Juventude | Porto | €2.5M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2004 | RS Futebol | Juventude | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2002 | Fluminense U20 | RS Futebol | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.