Jacob Bruun Larsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jacob Bruun Larsen's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-7.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1023 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1023 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1575
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-131 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo); role change RW -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -55% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1023 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 28 | 1023 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 1575 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RW | 15 | 407 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 1477 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 12 | 393 | 13% | 2 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1513 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 32 | 1247 | 36% | 6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 1551 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 12 | 322 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 1504 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 25 | 804 | 26% | 4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1537 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 9 | 326 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1343 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 2 | 89 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1518 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 11 | 391 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 1554 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 4 | 66 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.36 | 0.33 | 1532 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 24 | 1270 | 42% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1505 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LW | 4 | 104 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1598 | 1506 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1440 | 1592 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 144 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 139 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 149 | 1 | 1 | 1703 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 68 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Brown Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Lewis Grabban Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Craig Noone Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Kenwyne Jones Premier League · 2014 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Hal Robson-Kanu Premier League · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.4M | flat |
| Kenneth Zohore Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Darren Bent Premier League · 2014 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Onel Hernández Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Stuttgart | Burnley | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 8 Jan 2025 | Hoffenheim | Stuttgart | €1.7M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Burnley | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Hoffenheim | Burnley | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | RSC Anderlecht | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 23 Jan 2021 | Hoffenheim | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Dortmund | Hoffenheim | €9.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Stuttgart | Dortmund | Free / loan | €500k |
| 23 Jan 2018 | Dortmund | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. Dortmund U19 | Dortmund | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | B. Dortmund U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jan 2015 | Lyngby BK Youth | B. Dortmund U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.