João Moutinho

The model rates João Moutinho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.39x the positional average in the league (2194 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2194 (72% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.08

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.09

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1533

Opponent strength

1319

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€288k – €485k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output down 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -19%).

• ▲Age 40: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

58 (MID)

Relative output kept

72%–151%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

78%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.