Evgeniy Yablonskiy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Evgeniy Yablonskiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (1087 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €134k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1087 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1260
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €189k – €397k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -48% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1087 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 17 | 1087 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1260 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 24 | 1477 | 63% | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1271 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 9 | 559 | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 1244 | 1212 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 179 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Erskine Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Marko Stanojevic Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Matias Iglesias Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Aymen Tahar Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Jean Barrientos Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Oguz Gürbulak Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Panagiotis Zorbas Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Jacob Schoop Superliga · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2024 | Without Club | Asteras Tripoli | Unknown | €600k |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Aris Limassol | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 25 Jan 2022 | BATE Borisov | Aris Limassol | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | BATE II | BATE Borisov | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Borisov U19 | BATE II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.