Ferro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ferro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €451k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1634 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €475k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+153 Elo); relative output up 133% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -56% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1634 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 1634 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1310 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CB | 18 | 1412 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1386 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 9 | 556 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1315 | 1342 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 4 | 197 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1220 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2020/21 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 3 | 181 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1744 | 1501 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2316 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1369 | 1583 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 1144 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1346 | 1683 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 5 | 376 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 1541 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Silva Liga Portugal · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Dario Dumic Eredivisie · 2021 | 29 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Rúben Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Gastón Campi Liga Portugal · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gegé Liga Portugal · 2017 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.1M | flat |
| Berkan Emir Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Valerică Găman Super Lig · 2017 | 28 | €1.2M | €875k | fell |
| Volodymyr Polyovyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Estoril | Free / loan | €700k |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Hajduk Split | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 15 Feb 2023 | Benfica | Hajduk Split | €550k | €2.5M |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Vitesse | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Benfica | Vitesse | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Hajduk Split | Benfica | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Benfica | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Valencia | Benfica | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Benfica | Valencia | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Casa Pia U19 | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Benfica U19 | Casa Pia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Taboeira Yth | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | CB Estarreja F. | Taboeira Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Oliveirense You | CB Estarreja F. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.