
Iván Márquez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iván Márquez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €246k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2502 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €204k – €370k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-145 Elo); relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -56% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2502 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1325 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 28 | 2211 | 72% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1265 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2739 | 90% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1350 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2609 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1349 | 1243 | 0.60 |
| 2016/17 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 1571 | 1321 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 328 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anestis Anastasiadis Super League 1 · 2015 | 32 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Kevin Conboy Superliga · 2020 | 33 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Issam Chebake Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Dimosthenis Baxevanidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Jörgen Skjelvik Superliga · 2023 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Sander Fischer Superliga · 2019 | 31 | €300k | €275k | flat |
| Marin Anicic Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €725k | €50k | fell |
| Wallace Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €400k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Fortuna Sittard | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €600k |
| 15 Jul 2024 | 1.FC Nuremberg | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €850k |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Cracovia | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €350k |
| 5 Aug 2020 | Korona Kielce | Cracovia | Free / loan | €325k |
| 13 Aug 2018 | Valencia B | Korona Kielce | Free / loan | €250k |
| 17 Oct 2017 | Without Club | Valencia B | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Osasuna B | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 28 Jul 2016 | Atl. Madrileño | Osasuna B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atl. Malagueño | Atl. Madrileño | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | El Palo | Atl. Malagueño | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jul 2014 | Atl. Malagueño | El Palo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2014 | UD San Pedro | Atl. Malagueño | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2014 | Atl. Malagueño | UD San Pedro | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Málaga CF Youth | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.