Iván Márquez

32 yrs · Centre-back · Spain
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€450k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€118k – €407k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€283k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€204k – €370k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€124k – €905k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€118k – €407k
Model value (performance-implied)€283k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€204k – €370k
Dashed line: current market value (€450k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Iván Márquez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 58

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage38.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €246k vs market €450k
Expected appreciationVery low-42% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €850k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2502 (82% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€204k – €370k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-145 Elo); relative output down 30% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -56% to -16%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieCB32250282%100.040.06132511750.43
2024/25NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB28221172%200.080.08126513200.50
2022/23NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB31273990%310.130.12135012660.58
2021/22NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB30260985%000.000.02134912430.60
2016/17CA OsasunaLaligaCB436011%010.250.17157113211.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie19000—
2024/25Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen224000—
2022/23Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen221000—
2021/22Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen432800—
2016/17Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna327000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anestis Anastasiadis
Super League 1 · 2015
32€350k€200kfell
Kevin Conboy
Superliga · 2020
33€300k€150kfell
Issam Chebake
Super Lig · 2021
32€800k€250kfell
Dimosthenis Baxevanidis
Super League 1 · 2019
31€450k€250kfell
Jörgen Skjelvik
Superliga · 2023
32€350k€350kflat
Sander Fischer
Superliga · 2019
31€300k€275kflat
Marin Anicic
Super Lig · 2020
31€725k€50kfell
Wallace
Super League 1 · 2018
32€400k€325kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Aug 20251.FC NurembergFortuna SittardUnknown€600k
30 Jun 2025NEC Nijmegen1.FC NurembergFree / loan€600k
15 Jul 20241.FC NurembergNEC NijmegenFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2023NEC Nijmegen1.FC NurembergFree / loan€850k
19 Jul 2021CracoviaNEC NijmegenFree / loan€350k
5 Aug 2020Korona KielceCracoviaFree / loan€325k
13 Aug 2018Valencia BKorona KielceFree / loan€250k
17 Oct 2017Without ClubValencia BUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2017Osasuna BWithout ClubUnknown€250k
28 Jul 2016Atl. MadrileñoOsasuna BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Atl. MalagueñoAtl. MadrileñoFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2015El PaloAtl. MalagueñoFree / loanData unavailable
25 Jul 2014Atl. MalagueñoEl PaloFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2014UD San PedroAtl. MalagueñoFree / loanData unavailable
10 Jan 2014Atl. MalagueñoUD San PedroFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Málaga U19Atl. MalagueñoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Málaga CF YouthMálaga U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.