
Nikita Medvedev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikita Medvedev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €217k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €259k – €581k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -65% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1352 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1304 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | GK | 8 | 660 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1313 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2021/22 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1254 | 1227 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | GK | 4 | 360 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1422 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2016/17 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1409 | 1533 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1353 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FK Rostov | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | Zenit Izhevsk | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kostas Lamprou Eredivisie · 2021 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Michael Brouwer Eredivisie · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Théo Defourny Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 32 | €550k | €150k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kyriakidis Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €750k | €250k | fell |
| Ibrahim Sehic Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Antonis Georgallidis Super League 1 · 2014 | 32 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2024 | 32 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| David Meul Eredivisie · 2013 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Rostov | Pari NN | Free / loan | €500k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Rubin Kazan | Rostov | Free / loan | €300k |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Loko Moscow | Rubin Kazan | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rostov | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Feb 2016 | Zenit Izhevsk | Rostov | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Z. Izhevsk | Zenit Izhevsk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.