Pontus Almqvist
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pontus Almqvist's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (452 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 42.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €820k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 452 (13% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €735k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 452 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RW | 13 | 452 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1492 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RW | 29 | 1106 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 1485 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | RW | 30 | 2116 | 62% | 2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 1499 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 18 | 1333 | 49% | 2 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 1372 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 7 | 256 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1387 | 1358 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 19 | 1010 | 37% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 1353 | 1316 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 110 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irvin Cardona Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Christian Clemens Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.4M | flat |
| Dennis Oliech Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Änis Ben-Hatira Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Artur Sobiech Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Samuel Kalu Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Royston Drenthe Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Victor Obinna Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Rostov | Parma | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lecce | Rostov | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Rostov | Lecce | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Pogon Szczecin | Rostov | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Rostov | Pogon Szczecin | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Utrecht | Rostov | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 17 Mar 2022 | Rostov | Utrecht | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 15 Oct 2020 | Norrköping | Rostov | €3.8M | €250k |
| 30 Nov 2019 | IF Sylvia | Norrköping | Free / loan | €100k |
| 26 Mar 2019 | Norrköping | IF Sylvia | Free / loan | €10k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Norrby | Norrköping | Free / loan | €50k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Norrköping | Norrby | Free / loan | €50k |
| 16 Jul 2018 | Varbergs BoIS | Norrköping | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Norrköping | Varbergs BoIS | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Oct 2016 | Nike Academy | Norrköping | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Norrköping U17 | Nike Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Nyköp. BIS U19 | Norrköping U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.