Aleksandr Filin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Filin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €800k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1457 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €440k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 46 pts; changed club; team strength up (+122 Elo); relative output up 188% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -65% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1457 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1457 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1329 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1313 | 1204 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | KAS Eupen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 12 | 870 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1411 | 1150 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1316 | 1151 | 0.53 |
| 2022/23 | KAS Eupen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 9 | 726 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1325 | 1171 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1353 | 1273 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1349 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 725 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1381 | 1285 | 0.63 |
| 2015/16 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | LB | 1 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1675 | 1319 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 6 | 372 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 3 | 196 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Sunjic Premier Liga · 2020 | 32 | €1.6M | €650k | fell |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gonçalo Silva Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Rúben Lima Liga Portugal · 2019 | 30 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Bart van Hintum Eredivisie · 2016 | 29 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Volodymyr Chesnakov Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Hasan Ali Kaldırım Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.7M | €425k | fell |
| Alexander Fischer Superliga · 2016 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Khimki | Baltika | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | KAS Eupen | Khimki | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Khimki | KAS Eupen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Tambov | Khimki | Free / loan | €900k |
| 21 Feb 2020 | Khimki | Tambov | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Nizhny Novgorod | Khimki | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Ufa | Olimpiets | Free / loan | €50k |
| 27 Aug 2015 | Shakhtar-3 | Ufa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar-3 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.