Dodi Lukébakio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dodi Lukébakio's performance-implied value at EUR 5.5M-9.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.7M-15.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-10.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (925 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 925 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €10.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 64 pts; changed club; team strength up (+177 Elo); league level down (-110 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -67% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 925 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RW | 17 | 745 | 24% | 0 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 1325 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RW | 2 | 180 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1497 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RW | 38 | 3103 | 91% | 11 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 1514 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RW | 23 | 1124 | 33% | 5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 1511 | 1475 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 2407 | 79% | 11 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 1537 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RW | 19 | 873 | 29% | 1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 1518 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RW | 3 | 176 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 1684 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RW | 29 | 1867 | 61% | 5 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1555 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RW | 30 | 2045 | 67% | 7 | 7 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 1564 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Bundesliga | RW | 31 | 1978 | 65% | 10 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 1516 | 1431 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 19 | 1291 | 48% | 3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 1385 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2017/18 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1467 | 1436 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RW | 5 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1402 | 1403 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 14 | 421 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.32 | 1308 | 1510 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 4 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 4 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 115 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 296 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 155 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 3 | 193 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1485 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Mamaev Premier Liga · 2017 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Tiquinho Soares Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €7.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €23.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Yacine Brahimi Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €18.0M | €21.0M | flat |
| Yasin Öztekin Super Lig · 2015 | 28 | €5.8M | €3.5M | fell |
| Volkan Sen Super Lig · 2016 | 29 | €7.5M | €750k | fell |
| Robert Mak Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Bas Dost Liga Portugal · 2019 | 30 | €17.0M | €4.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Sevilla FC | Benfica | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 24 Aug 2023 | Hertha BSC | Sevilla FC | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Wolfsburg | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Hertha BSC | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Watford | Hertha BSC | €20.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | F. Düsseldorf | Watford | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 22 Jul 2018 | Watford | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jan 2018 | R Charleroi SC | Watford | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 29 Jan 2018 | RSC Anderlecht | R Charleroi SC | €2.6M | €3.0M |
| 28 Jan 2018 | R Charleroi SC | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Jul 2017 | RSC Anderlecht | R Charleroi SC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Toulouse | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | RSC Anderlecht | Toulouse | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 25 Oct 2015 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.