José Gomes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José Gomes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €330k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2314 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1231
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €438k – €906k
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -47% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LB | 27 | 2314 | 76% | 1 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 1341 | 1231 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LB | 28 | 2349 | 77% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 1350 | 1171 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari Freyr Skúlason Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 30 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Kirill Gotsuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Nuno Pinto Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Adil Auassar Eredivisie · 2018 | 32 | €600k | €325k | fell |
| Jordi Amat Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Larrys Mabiala Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Andrey Malykh Premier Liga · 2020 | 32 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Sergiy Yavorskyi Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €500k | €475k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2021 | Chaves | Nacional | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Penafiel | Chaves | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga B | Penafiel | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.