Alfonso Espino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alfonso Espino's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 68.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €570k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1481 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €286k – €792k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1481 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 30 | 1481 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1495 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 16 | 833 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1581 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 31 | 2513 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1515 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | LB | 36 | 3123 | 91% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1499 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | LB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1542 | 1439 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | LB | 32 | 2605 | 76% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1561 | 1425 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 245 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Cádiz CF | 4 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aridane Hernández Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Víctor Díaz Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Milan Bisevac Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Marco Russ Bundesliga · 2018 | 33 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Steven Reid Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Zanka Premier League · 2024 | 34 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Manuel Pasqual Serie A · 2016 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Anthony Réveillère Premier League · 2015 | 36 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2023 | Cádiz CF | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Nacional | Cádiz CF | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Nacional B | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2012 | Without Club | Nacional B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Miramar U19 | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.