
Josh Laurent
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josh Laurent's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1759 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €472k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1759 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1633
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €457k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -70% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1759 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 1759 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 1633 | 1343 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 156 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Löwe Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Miguel de las Cuevas Laliga · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Tom Cleverley Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Óscar Trejo Laliga · 2019 | 31 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Lolo Laliga · 2014 | 30 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Romaine Sawyers Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roque Mesa Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Javi Lara Laliga · 2015 | 30 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Stoke City | Burnley | €1.2M | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Reading | Stoke City | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Shrewsbury | Reading | Free / loan | €100k |
| 23 Jul 2018 | Wigan | Shrewsbury | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 May 2018 | Bury | Wigan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Wigan | Bury | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Hartlepool | Wigan | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Brentford | Hartlepool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Oct 2015 | Newport County | Brentford | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Aug 2015 | Brentford | Newport County | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jan 2015 | QPR U21 | Brentford | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Mar 2014 | Braintree | QPR U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Feb 2014 | QPR U21 | Braintree | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | QPR U18 | QPR U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.