Lukas Nmecha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lukas Nmecha's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-16.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-11.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.56x the positional average in the league (1073 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1073 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.79
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1631
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €11.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; changed club; team strength up (+83 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo); relative output up 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -70% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1073 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | ST | 31 | 1073 | 31% | 6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.79 | 1631 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 455 | 15% | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 1561 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 3 | 39 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 2.31 | 0.76 | 1597 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 16 | 899 | 29% | 4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 1544 | 1525 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 25 | 1632 | 53% | 8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 1507 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 31 | 2623 | 86% | 14 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 1358 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 6 | 128 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1621 | 1562 | 1.06 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | ST | 2 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1454 | 1831 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 5 | 333 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 43 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 156 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 322 | 2 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Middlesbrough FC | 2 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Hélder Costa Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Oumar Niasse Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Martin Braithwaite Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Roger Assalé Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €6.0M | €700k | fell |
| Lys Mousset Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Kelechi Iheanacho Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Carlos Vinícius Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Wolfsburg | Leeds | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Man City | Wolfsburg | €8.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | RSC Anderlecht | Man City | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 20 Aug 2020 | Man City | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Middlesbrough | Man City | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 3 Jan 2020 | Man City | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Jan 2020 | Wolfsburg | Man City | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 3 Aug 2019 | Man City | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Man City U23 | Man City | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Preston | Man City U23 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2018 | Man City U23 | Preston | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.