Marsoni Sambu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marsoni Sambu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €219k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1562 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1394
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €286k – €558k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -56% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1562 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 23 | 1562 | 58% | 0 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 1394 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 14 | 1055 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1424 | 1214 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 32 | 2047 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1320 | 1128 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 26 | 1504 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1364 | 1144 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 6 | 452 | 0 | 0 | 1304 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrique Liga Portugal · 2016 | 30 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Mohamed Sarr Super League 1 · 2013 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Zach Muscat Liga Portugal · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Stefan Strandberg Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Marco Baixinho Liga Portugal · 2020 | 31 | €475k | €400k | flat |
| Omri Ben Harush Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 29 | €650k | €300k | fell |
| Sergiy Borzenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Dario Dumic Eredivisie · 2021 | 29 | €800k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Sept 2025 | RWDM Brussels | FCV Dender EH | €200k | €700k |
| 23 Aug 2023 | RFC Seraing | RWDM | €100k | €400k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | SO Cholet | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | URSL Visé | SO Cholet | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RFC Seraing | URSL Visé | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CS Visé | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | CS Visé U19 | CS Visé | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AS Eupen U17 | CS Visé U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.