Romain Perraud
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Romain Perraud's performance-implied value at EUR 9.8M-22.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-6.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €6.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -68% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 30 | 2250 | 74% | 3 | 5 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1477 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 28 | 1999 | 58% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1546 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 19 | 358 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1468 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | LB | 29 | 1837 | 54% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 1606 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Southampton FC | Premier League | LB | 20 | 1625 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1584 | 1436 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LB | 36 | 3140 | 92% | 3 | 7 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 1448 | 1306 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LB | 20 | 1669 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 1443 | 1320 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1377 | 1489 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 10 | 666 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 270 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 2 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusan Basta Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Benoît Trémoulinas Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €9.5M | €6.5M | fell |
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €7.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Paletta Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €5.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Yuriy Zhirkov Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Franck Tabanou Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aurélien Chedjou Super Lig · 2015 | 30 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Real Betis | Lille | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Southampton | Real Betis | €3.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Nice | Southampton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Southampton | Nice | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Stade Brestois | Southampton | €12.0M | €8.0M |
| 16 Jul 2019 | Nice | Stade Brestois | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Paris FC | Nice | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 29 Aug 2018 | Nice | Paris FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | OGC Nice B | Nice | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Nizza U19 | OGC Nice B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Colomiers U17 | Nizza U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Colomiers Jgd | Colomiers U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.