Çağlar Söyüncü
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Çağlar Söyüncü's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-5.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 73.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 772 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1213
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €982k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 772 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 11 | 772 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1213 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1600 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1285 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 12 | 914 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 1278 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 6 | 110 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1466 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 7 | 529 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1585 | 1498 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 28 | 2498 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1553 | 1582 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 23 | 1816 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1546 | 1585 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 34 | 3037 | 89% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1581 | 1563 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 6 | 372 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1368 | 1558 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2153 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1533 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 2070 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1523 | 1444 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 3 | 213 | 0 | 0 | 1432 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 7 | 511 | 1 | 0 | 1518 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1864 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 6 | 460 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 3 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 4 | 334 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Salino Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Léo Dubois Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alberto Botía Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
| Milad Mohammadi Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Kaio Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Serdar Aziz Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €1.7M | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Atlético | Fenerbahçe | €8.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Fenerbahçe | Atlético | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Atlético | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Leicester | Atlético | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 9 Aug 2018 | Freiburg | Leicester | €21.1M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Altinordu | Freiburg | €7.9M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Aliaga FK | Altinordu | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jan 2013 | Bucaspor Yth | B. Yesiltepe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Oct 2011 | Menemen Bld Yth | Bucaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.