Emiliano Buendía

29 yrs · Left winger (also AM, RW) · Argentina
Aston Villa · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 172 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€16.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.4M – €12.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€15.8M – €35.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.3M – €10.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€2.9M – €31.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.4M – €12.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€15.8M – €35.9M
Projected value (24 months)€4.3M – €10.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€16.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Emiliano Buendía's performance-implied value at EUR 15.8M-35.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-10.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1760 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 32

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite93.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €5.8M vs market €16.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1760 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.41
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.34
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
94 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1721
Opponent strength
1597
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.3M – €10.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -76% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1760 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aston VillaPremier LeagueLW36176051%620.410.35159717211.30
2024/25Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaAM112528%200.710.25146116810.94
2024/25Aston VillaPremier LeagueAM12893%000.000.27150716951.23
2022/23Aston VillaPremier LeagueAM38242271%520.260.29155716251.23
2021/22Aston VillaPremier LeagueAM35190156%460.470.48156415201.17
2019/20Norwich CityPremier LeagueRW36246372%170.290.49158212811.14
2015/16Getafe CFLaligaRW1773722%100.120.45162314111.17
2014/15Getafe CFLaligaRW61274%000.000.67180114261.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueAston Villa14913351519
2025/26Fa CupAston Villa211511—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAston Villa4113001560
2024/25Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen16000—
2024/25Fa CupAston Villa11800—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen29001776
2022/23Fa CupAston Villa12400—
2021/22Fa CupAston Villa17900—
2019/20Fa CupNorwich City218701—
2014/15Copa Del ReyGetafe CF528400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Theo Walcott
Premier League · 2016
27€25.0M€20.0Mfell
Kévin Gameiro
Laliga · 2016
29€15.0M€20.0Mrose
Vitolo
Laliga · 2020
31€14.5M€1.5Mfell
Roberto Soldado
Laliga · 2016
31€16.0M€2.5Mfell
Anthony Martial
Premier League · 2023
28€15.0M€7.5Mfell
Roberto Firmino
Premier League · 2023
32€18.0M€15.0Mflat
Danny Welbeck
Premier League · 2018
28€15.0M€5.5Mfell
Diego Costa
Laliga · 2020
32€14.5M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2025LeverkusenAston VillaFree / loan€15.0M
29 Jan 2025Aston VillaLeverkusenFree / loan€18.0M
1 Jul 2021NorwichAston Villa€38.4M€35.0M
1 Jul 2018GetafeNorwich€1.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2018CyD LeonesaGetafeFree / loan€2.5M
27 Jul 2017GetafeCyD LeonesaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2015Getafe CF BGetafeUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Getafe U19Getafe CF BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Getafe CF YouthGetafe U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010R.Madrid Yth.Getafe CF YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2008CadetesR.Madrid Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.