
Emiliano Buendía
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emiliano Buendía's performance-implied value at EUR 15.8M-35.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-10.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1760 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1760 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1597
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €10.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -76% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1760 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LW | 36 | 1760 | 51% | 6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 1597 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 11 | 252 | 8% | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 1461 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 12 | 89 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1507 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 38 | 2422 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1557 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 35 | 1901 | 56% | 4 | 6 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 1564 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Norwich City | Premier League | RW | 36 | 2463 | 72% | 1 | 7 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 1582 | 1281 | 1.14 |
| 2015/16 | Getafe CF | Laliga | RW | 17 | 737 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 1623 | 1411 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Getafe CF | Laliga | RW | 6 | 127 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1801 | 1426 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 14 | 913 | 3 | 5 | 1519 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 115 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 4 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1776 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Norwich City | 2 | 187 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 5 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Walcott Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Kévin Gameiro Laliga · 2016 | 29 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Vitolo Laliga · 2020 | 31 | €14.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Roberto Soldado Laliga · 2016 | 31 | €16.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Roberto Firmino Premier League · 2023 | 32 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Diego Costa Laliga · 2020 | 32 | €14.5M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Leverkusen | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Aston Villa | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Norwich | Aston Villa | €38.4M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Getafe | Norwich | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | CyD Leonesa | Getafe | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 27 Jul 2017 | Getafe | CyD Leonesa | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Getafe CF B | Getafe | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Getafe U19 | Getafe CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Getafe CF Youth | Getafe U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | R.Madrid Yth. | Getafe CF Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2008 | Cadetes | R.Madrid Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.