Youssef Maleh

28 yrs · Central midfielder · Morocco
US Lecce · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€414k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €4.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€653k – €1.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€96k – €3.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€414k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €4.3M
Projected value (24 months)€653k – €1.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Youssef Maleh's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1566 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 86

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage50.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €553k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1566 (46% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
51 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1315
Opponent strength
1541
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€653k – €1.7M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -29% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1566 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie ACM14110732%100.080.22154112990.93
2025/26US LecceSerie ACM945913%000.000.23159013520.93
2024/25FC EmpoliSerie ACM22151444%010.060.15151013440.99
2023/24FC EmpoliSerie ACM34261076%010.030.11150713880.98
2022/23US LecceSerie ACM1767120%010.130.27152713230.94
2022/23ACF FiorentinaSerie ACM72989%000.000.15142715970.94
2021/22ACF FiorentinaSerie ACM28101330%230.440.26141414700.89

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Italy CupFC Empoli211710—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingACF Fiorentina2150001468
2021/22Italy CupACF Fiorentina532511—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Lazaros Christodoulopoulos
Serie A · 2014
28€1.6M€1.3Mflat
Diallo Guidileye
Ligue 1 · 2017
28€1.3M€200kfell
Pasquale Schiattarella
Serie A · 2014
27€1.6M€1.2Mfell
Jim Allevinah
Ligue 1 · 2022
27€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Gastón Brugman
Serie A · 2021
29€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Zan Majer
Serie A · 2020
28€1.6M€1.7Mflat
Danilo Soddimo
Serie A · 2016
29€1.1M€800kfell
Jan Hochscheidt
Bundesliga · 2014
27€1.2M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026CremoneseLecceFree / loan€1.5M
31 Jan 2026LecceCremoneseFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2025FC EmpoliLecceFree / loan€3.2M
31 Aug 2023LecceFC EmpoliFree / loan€4.5M
1 Jul 2023FiorentinaLecce€5.0M€4.5M
30 Jun 2023LecceFiorentinaFree / loan€4.5M
3 Jan 2023FiorentinaLecceFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2021VeneziaFiorentinaFree / loan€3.5M
21 Jan 2021FiorentinaVeneziaFree / loan€700k
20 Jan 2021VeneziaFiorentina€800k€700k
30 Jun 2019RavennaVeneziaFree / loan€150k
1 Aug 2018VeneziaRavennaFree / loan€75k
31 Jul 2018RC CesenaVeneziaFree / loan€75k
30 Jun 2018RavennaCesenaFree / loan€75k
16 Jan 2018CesenaRavennaFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2017Cesena U19CesenaUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2015AC Cesena YouthCesena U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.