Mama Baldé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mama Baldé's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (712 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 51.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 712 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €669k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -70% to -47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 712 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 18 | 712 | 23% | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 1509 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1146 | 37% | 2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 1434 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1545 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 20 | 542 | 18% | 2 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.64 | 1472 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | ST | 34 | 2671 | 78% | 12 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 1452 | 1247 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1724 | 50% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 1425 | 1332 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 2172 | 64% | 7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 1444 | 1211 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | RW | 24 | 1681 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 1432 | 1346 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | RW | 28 | 2275 | 74% | 8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 1370 | 1321 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | RB | 13 | 815 | 27% | 3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.34 | 1308 | 1269 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 452 | 0 | 1 | 1669 |
| 2018/19 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youcef Belaïli Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Antonio Floro Flores Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lacina Traore Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €725k | fell |
| Yura Movsisyan Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Kalifa Coulibaly Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Danko Lazovic Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €2.5M | €750k | fell |
| Fabio Borini Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Maxi López Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Lyon | Stade Brestois | €4.5M | €4.0M |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Troyes | Lyon | €6.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lyon | Troyes | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Troyes | Lyon | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jul 2021 | Dijon | Troyes | €3.5M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Dijon | €665k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Desportivo Aves | Sporting CP U23 | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 16 Jul 2018 | Sporting CP U23 | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting B | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Desportivo Aves | Sporting B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Sporting B | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | BC Branco | Sporting B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Sporting B | BC Branco | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sintrense Y19 | Sporting U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sintrense Y17 | Sintrense Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sintrense Y15 | Sintrense Y17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sintrense CJ | Sintrense Y15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.