Dani Calvo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani Calvo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €376k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1609 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €306k – €877k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -75% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1609 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | CB | 20 | 1609 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1493 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2020/21 | Elche CF | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1778 | 52% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1548 | 1411 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Zimmermann Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Luca Marrone Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Francesco Modesto Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €800k | €75k | fell |
| Norbert Gyömbér Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Vincent Muratori Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Bartosz Bereszyński Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Artem Fedetskyi Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €750k | €100k | fell |
| Andrea Costa Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €700k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2021 | Elche CF | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | CD Numancia | Elche CF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Elche CF | CD Numancia | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | CD Numancia | Elche CF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Atl. Levante | CD Numancia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2015 | CD Numancia | Atl. Levante | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CD Numancia B | CD Numancia | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Numancia U19 | CD Numancia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.