Gil Dias

30 yrs · Right winger (also LM) · Portugal
FC Famalicão · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
88/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€666k – €1.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €5.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€870k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€83k – €4.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€666k – €1.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €5.2M
Projected value (24 months)€870k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gil Dias's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (2507 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 88

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average58.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €888k vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2507 (82% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.41
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1406
Opponent strength
1331
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€870k – €2.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -64% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalRW33250782%480.430.41133114060.58
2024/25FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalRW30139646%530.520.54135613330.51
2022/23VfB StuttgartBundesligaRW740213%100.220.43155614291.04
2021/22SL BenficaLiga PortugalLM1261120%110.290.17134116560.67
2020/21FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalRW31236577%030.110.25135913320.61
2019/20AS MonacoLigue 1LM14105642%000.000.17142114260.82
2019/20Granada CFLaligaLM1235110%010.260.43158815121.16
2018/19Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1LM735513%010.250.22133315570.43
2017/18ACF FiorentinaSerie ALM27118235%220.300.33150314910.86
2017/18AS MonacoLigue 1LM170%000.000.09136816200.85
2016/17Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRW34257784%660.420.41135113670.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart1810—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica16001418
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica11001896
2019/20Copa Del ReyGranada CF11900—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2131101525
2018/19Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios17310—
2017/18Italy CupACF Fiorentina11700—
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC2180011395

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anton Zabolotnyi
Premier Liga · 2021
30€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Yevgen Seleznyov
Premier Liga · 2016
31€3.0M€750kfell
Geoffry Hairemans
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
30€1.0M€900kflat
Jhonder Cádiz
Liga Portugal · 2024
29€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Maxime Lestienne
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
28€4.0M€900kfell
Thomas Matton
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€1.2M€800kfell
Anton Shynder
Premier Liga · 2016
29€900k€400kfell
Morten ‘Duncan’ Rasmussen
Superliga · 2014
29€1.0M€1.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jul 2024StuttgartFamalicão€920k€900k
30 Jun 2024Legia WarszawaStuttgartFree / loan€900k
4 Sept 2023StuttgartLegia WarszawaFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jan 2023BenficaStuttgart€1.0M€2.0M
1 Jul 2021MonacoBenfica€1.5M€3.0M
30 Jun 2021FamalicãoMonacoFree / loan€3.0M
25 Sept 2020MonacoFamalicãoFree / loan€3.2M
20 Jul 2020Granada CFMonacoFree / loan€3.2M
31 Jan 2020MonacoGranada CFFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2019OlympiacosMonacoFree / loan€2.5M
24 Jan 2019MonacoOlympiacosFree / loan€3.0M
23 Jan 2019Nott'm ForestMonacoFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2018MonacoNott'm ForestFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2018FiorentinaMonacoFree / loan€3.0M
15 Aug 2017MonacoFiorentinaFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2017Rio AveMonacoFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2016MonacoRio AveFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2016VarzimMonacoFree / loan€500k
6 Jan 2016MonacoVarzimFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2015Braga BMonaco€5.0MData unavailable
30 Jun 2015Monaco U19Braga BFree / loanData unavailable
8 Oct 2014Braga BMonaco U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Braga U19Braga BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Sanjoanense S17Braga U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Sanjoanense S15Sanjoanense S17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Sanjoanense CJSanjoanense S15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Sporting Yth.Sanjoanense CJUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Gafanha Yth.Sporting Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.