Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kubilay Kanatsızkuş's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (601 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 7.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €139k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 601 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €227k – €428k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -39% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 601 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | ST | 21 | 601 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 1264 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 18 | 823 | 25% | 4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 1290 | 1201 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 13 | 340 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.63 | 1333 | 1047 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | ST | 6 | 83 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1192 | 1179 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 29 | 1674 | 47% | 5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 1275 | 1190 | 0.37 |
| 2018/19 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | ST | 10 | 775 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.47 | 1422 | 1283 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | ST | 5 | 47 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1404 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | ST | 8 | 253 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1345 | 1276 | 0.68 |
| 2016/17 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | ST | 29 | 1806 | 59% | 6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 1362 | 1247 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | RW | 4 | 258 | 8% | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.43 | 1344 | 1365 | 0.64 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bojan Matic Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Geraldo Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Manalis Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Sadik Bas Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €325k | €150k | fell |
| Ziya Alkurt Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Zlatko Tripic Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €400k | €800k | rose |
| Oleksiy Khoblenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Rashad Muhammed Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €375k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Göztepe | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €600k |
| 14 Jul 2023 | C. Rizespor | Göztepe | Unknown | €300k |
| 20 Jan 2022 | Y. Malatyaspor | C. Rizespor | Unknown | €700k |
| 28 Sept 2020 | Bursaspor | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Ankaragücü | Bursaspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Bursaspor | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Jan 2016 | Bursaspor U21 | Bursaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bursaspor U19 | Bursaspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bursaspor U17 | Bursaspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bursaspor U16 | Bursaspor U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bursaspor Yth | Bursaspor U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.