Valeriy Rogozynskyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valeriy Rogozynskyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (561 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €76k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 561 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1042
- Opponent strength
- 1162
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €142k – €251k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 561 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Kudrivka | Premier Liga | LM | 10 | 561 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 1162 | 1042 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | LM | 13 | 642 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1294 | 1128 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | LB | 28 | 1111 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1303 | 1175 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Kudrivka | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michal Skvarka Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Vitaliy Grusha Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| David Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Javier Mendoza Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €250k | €400k | rose |
| Mix Diskerud Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Denys Garmash Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Ibrahim Sissoko Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Marko Bakic Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €350k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2024 | FC Minaj | Kudrivka-Nyva | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Aug 2022 | SV Manching | FC Minaj | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Alyans | SV Manching | Free / loan | €200k |
| 18 Feb 2020 | MFC Mykolaiv | Alyans | Free / loan | €125k |
| 23 Feb 2016 | FC Poltava | MFC Mykolaiv | Free / loan | €75k |
| 17 Jul 2015 | MFC Mykolaiv | FC Poltava | Free / loan | €100k |
| 24 Jul 2014 | Unknown | MFC Mykolaiv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2012 | Mykolaiv-2 | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 May 2012 | Mykolaiv U17 | Mykolaiv-2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.