Alfons Sampsted

28 yrs · Right-back · Iceland
Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€308k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€235k – €477k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€561k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.1M – €169k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€308k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€235k – €477k
Projected value (24 months)€561k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alfons Sampsted's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €786k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
877 (29% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1245
Opponent strength
1300
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€561k – €1.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -39% to -5%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 877 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieRB1287729%020.210.18130012450.43
2023/24FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRB24154150%020.120.09134814660.48
2022/23FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRB1245615%000.000.06134415050.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles17410—
2025/26Fa CupBirmingham City1100—
2024/25Fa CupBirmingham City28300—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede5398101445
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFotballklubben Bodø/Glimt8750111407
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFotballklubben Bodø/Glimt6538001602
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede28600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Teenage Hadebe
Super Lig · 2024
29€2.0M€900kfell
Rustam Ashurmatov
Premier Liga · 2024
28€800k€750kflat
Anastasios Papazoglou
Super League 1 · 2015
27€800k€500kfell
Ilya Gaponov
Premier Liga · 2024
27€900k€900kflat
Ante Puljic
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€1.2M€1.0Mflat
Giannis Skondras
Scottish Premiership · 2017
27€700k€450kfell
Marlon
Super Lig · 2023
26€2.0M€4.0Mrose
Milos Satara
Premier Liga · 2024
29€700k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jan 2026BirminghamGo Ahead Eagles€250k€1.5M
1 Jul 2025FC TwenteBirmingham€1.4M€2.0M
30 Jun 2025BirminghamFC TwenteFree / loan€2.0M
12 Aug 2024FC TwenteBirminghamFree / loan€2.3M
1 Jan 2023Bodø/GlimtFC TwenteFree / loan€1.5M
20 Feb 2020NorrköpingBodø/GlimtUnknown€100k
30 Nov 2019BreidablikNorrköpingFree / loan€100k
1 Aug 2019NorrköpingBreidablikFree / loan€100k
31 Jul 2019IF SylviaNorrköpingFree / loan€100k
1 Jan 2019NorrköpingIF SylviaFree / loan€100k
30 Nov 2018LandskronaNorrköpingFree / loan€100k
1 Aug 2018NorrköpingLandskronaFree / loan€100k
14 Feb 2017BreidablikNorrköpingUnknown€75k
16 Oct 2015ThórBreidablikFree / loanData unavailable
29 Jul 2015BreidablikThórFree / loanData unavailable
16 Dec 2014Breidablik U19BreidablikUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.