
Alfons Sampsted
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alfons Sampsted's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €786k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 877 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1300
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €561k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -39% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 877 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | RB | 12 | 877 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1300 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 24 | 1541 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1348 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 12 | 456 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1344 | 1505 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 74 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 5 | 398 | 1 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 8 | 750 | 1 | 1 | 1407 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 6 | 538 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teenage Hadebe Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Rustam Ashurmatov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Anastasios Papazoglou Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Ilya Gaponov Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Ante Puljic Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Giannis Skondras Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Marlon Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Milos Satara Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Birmingham | Go Ahead Eagles | €250k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Twente | Birmingham | €1.4M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Birmingham | FC Twente | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 12 Aug 2024 | FC Twente | Birmingham | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Bodø/Glimt | FC Twente | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 20 Feb 2020 | Norrköping | Bodø/Glimt | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Breidablik | Norrköping | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Norrköping | Breidablik | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Jul 2019 | IF Sylvia | Norrköping | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Norrköping | IF Sylvia | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Landskrona | Norrköping | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Norrköping | Landskrona | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Feb 2017 | Breidablik | Norrköping | Unknown | €75k |
| 16 Oct 2015 | Thór | Breidablik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2015 | Breidablik | Thór | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Dec 2014 | Breidablik U19 | Breidablik | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.