Deiver Machado
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Deiver Machado's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1186 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €367k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; team strength down (-119 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -66% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1186 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LB | 14 | 911 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1491 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LM | 5 | 275 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1400 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 1805 | 59% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1462 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LM | 19 | 1127 | 37% | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 1455 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LM | 33 | 2205 | 64% | 4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 1434 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LB | 22 | 514 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1444 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2017/18 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 12 | 777 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1392 | 1492 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1690 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Lala Ligue 1 · 2023 | 32 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Lamine Koné Ligue 1 · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €150k | fell |
| Stefan Mitrovic Laliga · 2024 | 34 | €1.3M | €225k | fell |
| Sebastien De Maio Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Sébastien Corchia Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fouad Chafik Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Benoît Assou-Ekotto Ligue 1 · 2017 | 33 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jawad El Yamiq Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Dec 2025 | Lens | FC Nantes | €500k | €3.0M |
| 7 Jul 2021 | Toulouse | Lens | €1.8M | €900k |
| 25 Aug 2020 | KAA Gent | Toulouse | Free / loan | €550k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Atl. Nacional | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 7 Jul 2018 | KAA Gent | Atl. Nacional | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Jul 2017 | Millonarios | KAA Gent | Unknown | €950k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Atl. Nacional | Millonarios | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Alianza FC | Atl. Nacional | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Atl. Nacional | Alianza FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.