James Milner

40 yrs · Central midfielder (also LB, LM, RM) · England
Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€500k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€149k – €733k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€913k – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€408k – €531k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€180k – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€149k – €733k
Model value (performance-implied)€913k – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€408k – €531k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates James Milner's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (778 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh85.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable40.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €286k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationNeutral-9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €21.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
778 (23% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
86 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1611
Opponent strength
1600
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€408k – €531k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -64% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 778 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 40: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueCM2077823%110.230.22160016111.30
2024/25Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueCM41735%000.000.19157716141.23
2023/24Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueCM1577823%020.230.18157515201.14
2022/23Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM3189326%010.100.09153717711.23
2021/22Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM2485025%010.110.09153618981.17
2020/21Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM26106131%010.080.10155417631.19
2019/20Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM2292627%220.390.16154418421.14
2018/19Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM31178652%550.500.25155819161.22
2017/18Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCM32176352%030.150.12154417791.15
2016/17Liverpool FCPremier LeagueLB36315992%730.280.18152716661.07
2015/16Liverpool FCPremier LeagueRM28241671%5110.600.43153416391.08
2014/15Manchester CityPremier LeagueLM32174251%580.670.37156317191.06
2013/14Manchester CityPremier LeagueRM31135940%170.530.31150017881.12
2012/13Manchester CityPremier LeagueCM26172250%440.420.26152616511.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion5177001486
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC8241001736
2022/23Fa CupLiverpool FC29700—
2022/23Community ShieldLiverpool FC116001866
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC8211011684
2021/22Fa CupLiverpool FC315700—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC6363001648
2020/21Fa CupLiverpool FC218000—
2020/21Community ShieldLiverpool FC159001641
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC8415011589
2019/20Uefa Super CupLiverpool FC164001747
2019/20Fa CupLiverpool FC22900—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC12901221757
2018/19Fa CupLiverpool FC19000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC11875081669
2017/18Fa CupLiverpool FC210210—
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingLiverpool FC247001590
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueLiverpool FC121012231593
2015/16Fa CupLiverpool FC11800—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City8591101736
2014/15Fa CupManchester City218020—
2014/15Community ShieldManchester City130001704
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City6358131740
2013/14Fa CupManchester City430700—
2012/13Fa CupManchester City641001—
2012/13Community ShieldManchester City190011568
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City279011494

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Duda
Laliga · 2016
36€1.0M€100kfell
Alberto Rivera
Laliga · 2014
36€200k€200kflat
Mathieu Flamini
Laliga · 2019
35€600k€600kflat
Ryan Giggs
Premier League · 2013
40€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Seydou Keita
Laliga · 2014
34€1.5M€500kfell
Paul Scholes
Premier League · 2013
39€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Michael Krohn-Dehli
Laliga · 2018
35€800k€300kfell
Sergio Mora
Laliga · 2018
39€100k€100kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026BrightonRetiredUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2023LiverpoolBrightonFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2015Man CityLiverpoolFree / loan€14.0M
17 Aug 2010Aston VillaMan City€22.0M€20.0M
29 Aug 2008NewcastleAston Villa€15.0M€8.8M
8 May 2006Aston VillaNewcastleFree / loan€4.7M
31 Aug 2005NewcastleAston VillaFree / loan€5.5M
2 Jul 2004LeedsNewcastle€7.4MData unavailable
2 Oct 2003Swindon TownLeedsFree / loanData unavailable
4 Sept 2003LeedsSwindon TownFree / loanData unavailable
9 Nov 2002Leeds U18LeedsUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2002Leeds YouthLeeds U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

James Milner · MoneyballAI