Mutalip Alibekov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mutalip Alibekov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €247k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1485 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1214
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €328k – €605k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -42% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1485 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1485 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1347 | 1214 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1044 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1262 | 1233 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 307 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Buysens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Steven Fortes Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Ygor Nogueira Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Karim Saïdi Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Denis Polyakov Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Aleksey Kurilov Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Johan Björdal Superliga · 2014 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Dirk Marcellis Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2021 | Baltika | Dinamo Makhach. | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Legion-Dinamo | Baltika | Free / loan | €150k |
| 24 Feb 2021 | Baltika | Legion-Dinamo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Smolevichi | Baltika | Free / loan | €150k |
| 25 Feb 2020 | Baltika | Smolevichi | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Khimki | Baltika | Free / loan | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Baltika | Khimki | Free / loan | €175k |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Khimki | Baltika | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | CSKA Moscow II | Khimki | Unknown | €250k |
| 5 Aug 2014 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.