
Makana Baku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Makana Baku's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2084 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €428k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2084 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1237
- Opponent strength
- 1242
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €881k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); role change RW -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -55% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | LW | 25 | 2084 | 89% | 3 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 1242 | 1237 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | RW | 25 | 1835 | 78% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 1292 | 1192 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RW | 8 | 585 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 1245 | 1173 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | Göztepe | Super Lig | LW | 20 | 794 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 1221 | 1097 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 5 | 376 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 3 | 93 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 3 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1322 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Jönsson Superliga · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Barrie McKay Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Joshua John Superliga · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Thomas Nazlidis Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Gaëtan Robail Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Rasmus Festersen Superliga · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Federico Macheda Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Jorge Díaz Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €700k | €325k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2024 | Legia Warszawa | Atromitos | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | OFI Crete | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €450k |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Legia Warszawa | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €450k |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Göztepe | Legia Warszawa | €350k | €700k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | Holstein Kiel | Göztepe | €350k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Warta Poznan | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €900k |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Holstein Kiel | Warta Poznan | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sonnenhof-Gr. | Holstein Kiel | €300k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mainz 05 U19 | Sonnenhof-Gr. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Gonsenheim U19 | Mainz 05 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Mainz 05 U17 | Gonsenheim U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.