Makana Baku

28 yrs · Left winger (also RW) · Germany
APS Atromitos Athinon · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€288k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€447k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€409k – €881k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€649k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€288k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€447k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€409k – €881k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Makana Baku's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2084 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average19.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €428k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationLow-19% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2084 (89% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.39
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.42
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
20 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1237
Opponent strength
1242
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€409k – €881k

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); role change RW -> LW.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -55% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
19 (ATT)
Relative output kept
99%–112%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
47%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1LW25208489%360.390.42124212370.43
2024/25APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1RW25183578%210.150.35129211920.35
2023/24Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FCSuper League 1RW858525%120.460.51124511730.42
2021/22GöztepeSuper LigLW2079423%210.340.42122110970.42

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAPS Atromitos Athinon537633—
2024/25Kypello ElladasAPS Atromitos Athinon39320—
2023/24Kypello ElladasOmilos Filathlon Irakliou FC311700—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingLegia Warszawa487011322

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rasmus Jönsson
Superliga · 2017
27€700k€600kflat
Barrie McKay
Scottish Premiership · 2023
29€850k€250kfell
Joshua John
Superliga · 2015
27€1.0M€550kfell
Thomas Nazlidis
Super League 1 · 2017
30€600k€250kfell
Gaëtan Robail
Super League 1 · 2023
29€800k€700kflat
Rasmus Festersen
Superliga · 2015
29€500k€500kflat
Federico Macheda
Super League 1 · 2019
28€800k€1.5Mrose
Jorge Díaz
Super League 1 · 2018
29€700k€325kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jul 2024Legia WarszawaAtromitosFree / loan€450k
30 Jun 2024OFI CreteLegia WarszawaFree / loan€450k
15 Jan 2024Legia WarszawaOFI CreteFree / loan€450k
2 Jul 2022GöztepeLegia Warszawa€350k€700k
13 Jul 2021Holstein KielGöztepe€350k€900k
30 Jun 2021Warta PoznanHolstein KielFree / loan€900k
14 Jan 2021Holstein KielWarta PoznanFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2019Sonnenhof-Gr.Holstein Kiel€300k€400k
1 Jul 2017Mainz 05 U19Sonnenhof-Gr.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Gonsenheim U19Mainz 05 U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Mainz 05 U17Gonsenheim U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Mainz 05 Yth.Mainz 05 U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Makana Baku · MoneyballAI