
Pedro Ferreira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Ferreira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (1969 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1969 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -61% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | DM | 31 | 1969 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1314 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 1826 | 60% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 1333 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 20 | 1323 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1293 | 1216 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 14 | 994 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1274 | 1318 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 21 | 1858 | 94% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1276 | 1241 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 1279 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 6 | 329 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Shvets Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Abuda Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Dmytro Ivanisenya Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Goran Causic Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pavel Mogilevets Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Otabek Shukurov Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Petrus Boumal Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €1.8M | €850k | fell |
| Rafael Assis Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2024 | Aalborg BK | Santa Clara | Unknown | €450k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | Varzim | Aalborg BK | €367k | €350k |
| 16 Jul 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Varzim | €147k | €225k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Mafra | Sporting CP U23 | Free / loan | €225k |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Sporting CP U23 | Mafra | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting B | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Leiria Y | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.