Pedro Ferreira

28 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Portugal
CD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€536k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €3.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.5M – €74k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€536k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pedro Ferreira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (1969 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 35

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average30.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.2M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1969 (64% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
31 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1276
Opponent strength
1314
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output down 66% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -61% to -43%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD Santa ClaraLiga PortugalDM31196964%000.000.05131412750.58
2024/25CD Santa ClaraLiga PortugalCM32182660%040.200.26133312760.51
2022/23Aalborg BKSuperligaDM20132367%100.070.11129312160.47
2021/22Aalborg BKSuperligaDM1499450%200.180.18127413180.45
2020/21Aalborg BKSuperligaDM21185894%020.100.10127612410.43

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingCD Santa Clara6206001279
2022/23Oddset PokalenAalborg BK632900—
2021/22Oddset PokalenAalborg BK215300—
2020/21Oddset PokalenAalborg BK15700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anton Shvets
Premier Liga · 2020
27€2.2M€1.2Mfell
Abuda
Super Lig · 2016
27€1.5M€600kfell
Dmytro Ivanisenya
Premier Liga · 2022
28€2.0M€700kfell
Goran Causic
Premier Liga · 2021
29€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Pavel Mogilevets
Premier Liga · 2019
26€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Otabek Shukurov
Super Lig · 2023
27€2.5M€1.8Mfell
Petrus Boumal
Premier Liga · 2019
26€1.8M€850kfell
Rafael Assis
Liga Portugal · 2017
27€1.5M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jan 2024Aalborg BKSanta ClaraUnknown€450k
19 Aug 2020VarzimAalborg BK€367k€350k
16 Jul 2019Sporting CP U23Varzim€147k€225k
30 Jun 2019MafraSporting CP U23Free / loan€225k
26 Jul 2018Sporting CP U23MafraFree / loan€25k
1 Jul 2018Sporting BSporting CP U23Unknown€25k
1 Jul 2017Sporting U19Sporting BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Leiria YSporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Pedro Ferreira · MoneyballAI