José Fonte

42 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
Casa Pia AC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€100k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€26k – €191k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€55k – €339k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€78k – €112k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€136k – €313k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€26k – €191k
Model value (performance-implied)€55k – €339k
Projected value (24 months)€78k – €112k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates José Fonte's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage37.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable42.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €95k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral+6% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1439 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1225
Opponent strength
1313
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€78k – €112k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output up 222% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 43: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1439 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Casa Pia ACLiga PortugalCB18143947%100.060.08131312250.58
2024/25Casa Pia ACLiga PortugalCB25203366%000.000.02133312760.51
2023/24SC BragaLiga PortugalCB19151449%000.000.02139314990.58
2022/23LOSC LilleLigue 1CB31259276%100.030.03142115550.82
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1CB383420100%020.050.04141815400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1CB36318793%310.110.07143716100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1CB25220588%110.080.08145015160.82
2018/19LOSC LilleLigue 1CB36311391%320.140.14146315430.82
2017/18West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB869020%010.130.10148114961.15
2016/17Southampton FCPremier LeagueCB17153045%000.000.02154715011.07
2016/17West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB16140541%000.000.03153614861.07
2015/16Southampton FCPremier LeagueCB37316893%210.090.08152616191.08
2014/15Southampton FCPremier LeagueCB37333097%010.030.04154515461.06
2013/14Southampton FCPremier LeagueCB36318193%300.080.09154315491.12
2012/13Southampton FCPremier LeagueCB27231468%210.120.12151714721.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSC Braga4360001656
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Braga4360001385
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille8720001676
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille190001727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille6495001596
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille4360001688
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingSouthampton FC4360001433
2015/16Fa CupSouthampton FC19000—
2014/15Fa CupSouthampton FC327000—
2013/14Fa CupSouthampton FC11100—
2012/13Fa CupSouthampton FC16300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ibrahim Öztürk
Super Lig · 2022
41€50k€25kfell
Michel Breuer
Eredivisie · 2018
38€100k€100kflat
Loukas Vyntra
Super League 1 · 2021
40€100k€100kflat
Steven Vitória
Liga Portugal · 2024
37€100k€50kfell
Carl Hoefkens
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
37€100k€100kflat
Oleksandr Kucher
Super Lig · 2019
37€100k€100kflat
Denys Kulakov
Premier Liga · 2023
37€100k€100kflat
Matt Lockwood
Scottish Premiership · 2013
37€100k€100kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Casa PiaRetiredUnknown€100k
10 Jul 2024BragaCasa PiaFree / loan€100k
18 Jul 2023LilleBragaFree / loan€600k
15 Jul 2018DL YifangLilleFree / loan€2.0M
23 Feb 2018West HamDL Yifang€5.6M€5.0M
20 Jan 2017SouthamptonWest Ham€9.2M€6.0M
9 Jan 2010Crystal PalaceSouthampton€1.4M€1.5M
1 Jul 2007BenficaCrystal PalaceFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2007CF EstrelaBenficaFree / loan€500k
1 Aug 2006BenficaCF EstrelaFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2006Paços FerreiraBenficaFree / loan€500k
1 Feb 2006BenficaPaços FerreiraFree / loan€500k
1 Jan 2006Vitória SetúbalBenficaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2005FelgueirasVitória SetúbalUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Sporting BFelgueirasFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2002Sporting U19Sporting BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2000Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 1999Sacavenense S17Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 1998Sacavenense S15Sacavenense S17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 1997Sporting Sub-15Sacavenense S15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 1996Sporting Yth.Sporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 1994FC Penafiel YouSporting Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.