Joca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joca's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1727 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €190k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1727 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1253
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €259k – €522k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -34% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1727 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | RW | 22 | 1727 | 74% | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 1253 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 28 | 1722 | 56% | 4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 1374 | 1317 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 6 | 422 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 1475 | 1329 | 0.68 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 3 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1528 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 3 | 83 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1315 | 1371 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RW | 14 | 320 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1343 | 1283 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aron Sigurdarson Superliga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Adrián Sardinero Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| Thomás Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Sandi Krizman Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Denis Epstein Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Pablo Mazza Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Maksym Feshchuk Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €600k | €550k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Genclerbirligi | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €550k |
| 5 Feb 2025 | WH Three Towns | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €650k |
| 9 Jul 2024 | Rio Ave | WH Three Towns | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Leixões | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €200k |
| 24 Aug 2020 | Rio Ave U23 | Leixões | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Leixões | Rio Ave U23 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Rio Ave U23 | Leixões | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rio Ave | Rio Ave U23 | Unknown | €300k |
| 27 Jul 2018 | Braga | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Tondela | Braga | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Jul 2017 | Braga | Tondela | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Sporting Sub-15 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | SC Braga Youth | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.