Javi Sánchez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Javi Sánchez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €494k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1227 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1328
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €434k – €703k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; changed club; team strength up (+93 Elo); league level down (-137 Elo); relative output down 27% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -69% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1227 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CB | 15 | 1227 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1328 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2031 | 59% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1519 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2395 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1512 | 1372 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 16 | 921 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1617 | 1394 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 8 | 496 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1604 | 1465 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1790 | 1494 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | UD Melilla | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Viktoria Plzen | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1779 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zainadine Liga Portugal · 2017 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| João Nunes Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Zaurbek Pliev Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €950k | €300k | fell |
| Petar Filipovic Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Berkan Emir Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Cristian Villagra Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Gonçalo Silva Liga Portugal · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Xavier Chen Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | Real Valladolid | Arouca | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Real Madrid | Real Valladolid | €3.0M | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Real Valladolid | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 27 Jul 2019 | Real Madrid | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.