Soner Gönül
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Soner Gönül's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (810 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 6.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €269k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 810 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1241
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €284k – €510k
Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -40% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 810 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LM | 17 | 810 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1241 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 452 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1255 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LB | 24 | 1943 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1262 | 1217 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chumbinho Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Lee Croft Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Morgaro Gomis Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Ádám Pintér Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €600k | €850k | rose |
| Cheick Doukouré Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Philip Rasmussen Superliga · 2017 | 28 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Gonzalo Bustamante Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Oğuzhan Özyakup Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Samsunspor | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | A. Keciörengücü | Samsunspor | €290k | €800k |
| 24 Jul 2019 | BAK FK | Keciörengücü | Unknown | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Galatasaray U21 | BAK FK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Erbaaspor | Galatasaray U21 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 20 Jul 2017 | Galatasaray U21 | Erbaaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Galatasaray U19 | Galatasaray U21 | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Galatasaray U17 | Galatasaray U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Sept 2013 | Giresunspor Yth | Galatasaray U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.