Güven Yalçın
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Güven Yalçın's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (995 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €648k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 995 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.59
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1243
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €445k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-54 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -41% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 995 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 28 | 995 | 33% | 8 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 1243 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | ST | 23 | 756 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 1390 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | ST | 32 | 2137 | 62% | 9 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 1288 | 1264 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 30 | 963 | 28% | 6 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 1259 | 1342 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 13 | 279 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 1232 | 1408 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 20 | 777 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1297 | 1401 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 22 | 1096 | 36% | 8 | 3 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1379 | 1521 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1409 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 291 | 0 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1489 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferdy Druijf Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Emeka Eze Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €1.1M | €700k | fell |
| Yuriy Yakovenko Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Ilhan Depe Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €600k | €275k | fell |
| Sylla Sow Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Ion Nicolaescu Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Conor Washington Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 28 | €650k | €575k | flat |
| Rodgers Kola Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €450k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | Genoa | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Arouca | Genoa | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Sept 2024 | Genoa | Arouca | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Karagümrük | Genoa | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 8 Sept 2023 | Genoa | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €900k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Besiktas | Genoa | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Lecce | Besiktas | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Besiktas | Lecce | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Leverkusen U19 | Besiktas | €150k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Leverkusen U17 | Leverkusen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Leverkusen Yth. | Leverkusen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Benrath Yth. | Leverkusen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.