Iván Martín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iván Martín's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-8.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.48x the positional average in the league (2540 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2540 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -39% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2540 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1487 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2043 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1521 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | AM | 36 | 2747 | 80% | 5 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 1473 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | AM | 24 | 1594 | 47% | 3 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 1514 | 1458 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 7 | 332 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 4 | 184 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Bauer Premier Liga · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Walace Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Lee Cattermole Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Perparim Hetemaj Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €4.2M | rose |
| Manuel Schmiedebach Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Arnaud Souquet Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Guilherme Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.2M | flat |
| Edenilson Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2023 | Villarreal | Girona | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Girona | Villarreal | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Villarreal | Girona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 26 Jan 2022 | Alavés | Villarreal | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Jul 2021 | Villarreal | Alavés | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | CD Mirandés | Villarreal | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Villarreal | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.