Ponck

35 yrs · Centre-back (also DM) · Cape Verde
Avs Futebol · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€100k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€30k – €234k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€76k – €248k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€89k – €120k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€158k – €218k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€30k – €234k
Model value (performance-implied)€76k – €248k
Projected value (24 months)€89k – €120k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ponck's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average9.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.7 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €99k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral+8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.7M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
921 (30% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
10 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1182
Opponent strength
1341
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€89k – €120k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-88 Elo); relative output up 33% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -58% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Avs FutebolLiga PortugalCB1692130%000.000.06134111820.58
2024/25Moreirense FCLiga PortugalCB948216%000.000.04130812710.51
2023/24Moreirense FCLiga PortugalCB15102834%000.000.04136013290.58
2022/23GD ChavesLiga PortugalCB21180159%000.000.03139313370.68
2021/22Caykur RizesporSuper LigCB13117034%010.080.09125011790.42
2021/22Basaksehir FKSuper LigCB62196%000.000.06124213720.42
2020/21Basaksehir FKSuper LigCB23177849%010.050.05125112660.37
2019/20Basaksehir FKSuper LigCB22153850%100.060.05133114620.45
2018/19Desportivo Aves (- 2020)Liga PortugalCB32273389%210.100.10138713210.65
2017/18Desportivo Aves (- 2020)Liga PortugalCB29261085%100.030.05133812690.64
2016/17GD ChavesLiga PortugalCB27226774%000.000.02136012620.58
2015/16FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalDM835712%000.000.07134613180.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBasaksehir FK4184001742
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueBasaksehir FK8631001548
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingBasaksehir FK190001579

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Georgios Dasios
Super League 1 · 2018
35€150k€100kfell
Papa Gueye
Premier Liga · 2019
35€100k€50kfell
Carl Tremarco
Scottish Premiership · 2021
36€200k€200kflat
Gary MacKenzie
Scottish Premiership · 2020
35€150k€150kflat
Mads Justesen
Superliga · 2018
35€150k€150kflat
Gianni Zuiverloon
Eredivisie · 2021
35€225k€225kflat
Andreas Bjelland
Superliga · 2023
35€150k€25kfell
Nadson
Premier Liga · 2019
35€100k€25kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Nov 2025Without ClubAvs FSUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2025H. Beer ShevaWithout ClubUnknown€600k
21 Jan 2025MoreirenseH. Beer Sheva€500k€600k
4 Sept 2023ChavesMoreirenseFree / loan€800k
1 Sept 2022BasaksehirChavesFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2022C. RizesporBasaksehirFree / loan€400k
7 Feb 2022BasaksehirC. RizesporFree / loan€400k
29 Jul 2019Desportivo AvesBasaksehirUnknown€1.0M
25 Jul 2018Benfica BDesportivo AvesUnknown€1.3M
30 Jun 2018Desportivo AvesBenfica BFree / loan€1.3M
27 Jul 2017Benfica BDesportivo AvesFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2017ChavesBenfica BFree / loan€900k
31 Aug 2016Benfica BChavesFree / loan€350k
30 Jun 2016Paços FerreiraBenfica BFree / loan€250k
15 Jan 2016Benfica BPaços FerreiraFree / loan€100k
4 Jan 2016FarenseBenfica BUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2014QuarteirenseFarenseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013CS MindelenseQuarteirenseFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ponck · MoneyballAI