
Umut Meraş
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Umut Meraş's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €201k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1828 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €206k – €372k
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -3% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | LB | 23 | 1828 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1272 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | LB | 31 | 1907 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1262 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 7 | 485 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1289 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 15 | 427 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1269 | 1517 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 22 | 1342 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1277 | 1342 | 0.42 |
| 2018/19 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | LB | 27 | 2361 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1388 | 1258 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1348 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 3 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 1715 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alim Öztürk Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Anthony Stewart Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Oliver Lund Superliga · 2021 | 31 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Christos Lisgaras Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Ivan Trubochkin Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Sidcley Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Steven Smith Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Besiktas | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €375k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Le Havre AC | Besiktas | €1.5M | €2.2M |
| 13 Aug 2019 | Bursaspor | Le Havre AC | €1.3M | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Boluspor | Bursaspor | €525k | €350k |
| 22 Sept 2014 | Boluspor U21 | Boluspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Feb 2013 | Yesilköy Yth | Boluspor U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Oct 2012 | Sariyer Yth | Yesilköy Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.