Umut Meraş

30 yrs · Left-back · Türkiye
Eyüpspor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€76k – €449k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€353k – €499k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€206k – €372k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€96k – €423k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€76k – €449k
Model value (performance-implied)€353k – €499k
Projected value (24 months)€206k – €372k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Umut Meraş's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 81

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average15.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €201k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1828 (60% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
16 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1204
Opponent strength
1272
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€206k – €372k

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 57% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -3% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26EyüpsporSuper LigLB23182860%020.100.17127212040.40
2024/25EyüpsporSuper LigLB31190759%110.090.11126212290.39
2023/24Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB748514%000.000.08128913360.45
2022/23Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB1542713%000.000.06126915170.50
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigLB22134239%020.130.12127713420.42
2018/19BursasporSuper LigLB27236177%200.080.13138812580.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü4142001348
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü3253001715

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alim Öztürk
Super Lig · 2024
32€450k€450kflat
Anthony Stewart
Scottish Premiership · 2023
31€400k€350kflat
Oliver Lund
Superliga · 2021
31€300k€250kflat
Alpaslan Öztürk
Super Lig · 2024
31€300k€300kflat
Christos Lisgaras
Super League 1 · 2016
30€350k€400kflat
Ivan Trubochkin
Premier Liga · 2023
30€300k€300kflat
Sidcley
Super League 1 · 2024
31€700k€700kflat
Steven Smith
Scottish Premiership · 2017
32€350k€350kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024BesiktasEyüpsporFree / loan€375k
30 Aug 2021Le Havre ACBesiktas€1.5M€2.2M
13 Aug 2019BursasporLe Havre AC€1.3M€800k
31 Aug 2018BolusporBursaspor€525k€350k
22 Sept 2014Boluspor U21BolusporUnknownData unavailable
15 Feb 2013Yesilköy YthBoluspor U21Free / loanData unavailable
12 Oct 2012Sariyer YthYesilköy YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.