Gerson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gerson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.2M-16.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-12.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (688 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 53.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 688 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €12.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -70% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 688 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 12 | 688 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1317 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 10 | 420 | 12% | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 1368 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2553 | 75% | 9 | 7 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 1420 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2440 | 71% | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1448 | 1384 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 24 | 898 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1398 | 1712 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 4 | 131 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1441 | 1711 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 231 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 280 | 0 | 0 | 1412 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 168 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 6 | 219 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 6 | 267 | 0 | 1 | 1501 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanguy Ndombélé Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Shoya Nakajima Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Dele Alli Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tchê Tchê Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Siem de Jong Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ilsinho Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Wilmar Barrios Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Diogo Gonçalves Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | Zenit S-Pb | Cruzeiro | €27.0M | €18.0M |
| 4 Jul 2025 | Flamengo | Zenit S-Pb | €25.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Marseille | Flamengo | €15.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Flamengo | Marseille | €20.5M | €20.0M |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Roma | Flamengo | €13.0M | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Fiorentina | Roma | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Roma | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Fluminense | Roma | €18.5M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Fluminense U17 | Fluminense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.