
Athanasios Papageorgiou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Athanasios Papageorgiou's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 39.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26k vs market €25k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 456 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1227
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26k – €107k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -43% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 456 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | RB | 6 | 456 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1227 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | RB | 20 | 1519 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1349 | 1147 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | RB | 24 | 1807 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1334 | 1239 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | RB | 18 | 846 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1284 | 1303 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | AO Xanthi | Super League 1 | RB | 5 | 266 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1301 | 1296 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Panthrakikos Komotini | Super League 1 | RB | 25 | 2147 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1329 | 1114 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | Panthrakikos Komotini | Super League 1 | RB | 16 | 1285 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1323 | 1262 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | Panthrakikos Komotini | Super League 1 | RB | 33 | 2842 | 93% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1335 | 1241 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 4 | 216 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 7 | 451 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 9 | 532 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panionios Athens | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | AO Xanthi | 4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panthrakikos Komotini | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | Panthrakikos Komotini | 5 | 429 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | Panthrakikos Komotini | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Alikin Premier Liga · 2021 | 37 | €50k | €25k | fell |
| Giannis Christou Super League 1 · 2016 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Erdem Özgenç Super Lig · 2024 | 40 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Sergiy Siminin Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Themistoklis Tzimopoulos Super League 1 · 2023 | 38 | €125k | €75k | fell |
| Oleksiy Dytyatyev Premier Liga · 2023 | 35 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Lewis Stevenson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Andreas Bjelland Superliga · 2024 | 36 | €75k | €25k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2021 | Ionikos Nikea | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €150k |
| 3 Feb 2021 | Kalamata | Ionikos Nikea | Free / loan | €150k |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Panionios | Kalamata | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Xanthi | Panionios | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Panthrakikos | Xanthi | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Aug 2013 | AE Larisa | Panthrakikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Atromitos | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Pierikos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Atromitos | Pierikos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Panargiakos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Atromitos | Panargiakos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2008 | Rodos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 17 Jul 2007 | Atromitos | Rodos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2007 | Ethn. Piraeus | Atromitos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2007 | Atromitos | Ethn. Piraeus | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Iraklis Chalkis | Atromitos | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.