Athanasios Papageorgiou

39 yrs · Right-back · Greece
Athlitiki Enosi Larisas · Super League 1 · Foot: both · Height: 183 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€25k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5k – €66k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€40k – €191k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€26k – €107k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€26k – €186k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5k – €66k
Model value (performance-implied)€40k – €191k
Projected value (24 months)€26k – €107k
Dashed line: current market value (€25k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Athanasios Papageorgiou's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average0.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable39.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €26k vs market €25k
Expected appreciationVery high+55% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €500k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
456 (20% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
0 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1129
Opponent strength
1227
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€26k – €107k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -43% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 456 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athlitiki Enosi LarisasSuper League 1RB645619%010.200.21122711290.43
2019/20Panionios AthensSuper League 1RB20151965%010.060.14134911470.46
2018/19Panionios AthensSuper League 1RB24180767%010.050.10133412390.43
2017/18Panionios AthensSuper League 1RB1884631%110.210.19128413030.48
2016/17AO XanthiSuper League 1RB526610%000.000.11130112960.44
2015/16Panthrakikos KomotiniSuper League 1RB25214780%210.130.18132911140.46
2014/15Panthrakikos KomotiniSuper League 1RB16128542%000.000.06132312620.44
2013/14Panthrakikos KomotiniSuper League 1RB33284293%010.030.06133512410.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Larisas29800—
2019/20Kypello ElladasPanionios Athens421600—
2018/19Kypello ElladasPanionios Athens745100—
2017/18Kypello ElladasPanionios Athens953200—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanionios Athens118001494
2016/17Kypello ElladasAO Xanthi432200—
2015/16Kypello ElladasPanthrakikos Komotini19000—
2014/15Kypello ElladasPanthrakikos Komotini542900—
2013/14Kypello ElladasPanthrakikos Komotini215300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Pavel Alikin
Premier Liga · 2021
37€50k€25kfell
Giannis Christou
Super League 1 · 2016
35€100k€100kflat
Erdem Özgenç
Super Lig · 2024
40€50k€50kflat
Sergiy Siminin
Premier Liga · 2023
36€50k€50kflat
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
Super League 1 · 2023
38€125k€75kfell
Oleksiy Dytyatyev
Premier Liga · 2023
35€50k€50kflat
Lewis Stevenson
Scottish Premiership · 2024
36€100k€100kflat
Andreas Bjelland
Superliga · 2024
36€75k€25kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Jul 2021Ionikos NikeaAE LarisaFree / loan€150k
3 Feb 2021KalamataIonikos NikeaFree / loan€150k
15 Sept 2020PanioniosKalamataFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2017XanthiPanioniosFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2016PanthrakikosXanthiFree / loan€400k
16 Aug 2013AE LarisaPanthrakikosFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2011AtromitosAE LarisaFree / loan€350k
30 Jun 2011PierikosAtromitosFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2010AtromitosPierikosFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2010PanargiakosAtromitosFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2009AtromitosPanargiakosFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2008RodosAtromitosFree / loan€100k
17 Jul 2007AtromitosRodosFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2007Ethn. PiraeusAtromitosFree / loan€100k
1 Jan 2007AtromitosEthn. PiraeusFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2005Iraklis ChalkisAtromitosFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.