Connor McLennan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Connor McLennan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.78x the positional average in the league (767 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €58k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 767 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.70
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 981
- Opponent strength
- 1204
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €105k – €172k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 767 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 16 | 767 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 1204 | 981 | 0.31 |
| 2022/23 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 24 | 957 | 32% | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 1333 | 1138 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 18 | 560 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1318 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 23 | 1090 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 1297 | 1336 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 18 | 825 | 31% | 3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 1329 | 1362 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 18 | 1307 | 44% | 3 | 6 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1287 | 1359 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1258 | 1362 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 1340 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1322 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 291 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Sims Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Yaroslav Bogunov Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Oleg Vyshnevskyi Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Tete Yengi Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €450k | flat |
| Shkodran Maholli Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €250k | €125k | fell |
| João Pedro Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Conor Wilkinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €125k | €125k | flat |
| Giannis Gianniotas Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Ayr United | Livingston FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 11 Oct 2024 | Without Club | Ayr United | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Salford | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Aberdeen FC | Salford | Free / loan | €375k |
| 31 May 2023 | St. Johnstone | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €375k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Aberdeen FC | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €375k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Aberdeen FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jan 2018 | Brechin City | Aberdeen FC U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Brechin City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jan 2017 | Brechin City | Aberdeen FC U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Dec 2016 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Brechin City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Aberdeen FC U17 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.