Matthieu Udol
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matthieu Udol's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-9.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (3005 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3005 (98% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -65% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LM | 34 | 3005 | 98% | 1 | 7 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1457 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1478 | 1284 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 12 | 1007 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1422 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 25 | 1722 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1415 | 1341 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 13 | 1102 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 1435 | 1345 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 6 | 353 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1433 | 1278 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LB | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1493 | 1336 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Valbuena Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €15.0M | €11.5M | fell |
| Custódio Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €3.5M | €900k | fell |
| Hugo Viana Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €8.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Benjamin André Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Fernando Belluschi Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €6.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Yuriy Gazinskiy Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €5.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Vítor Silva Liga Portugal · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | FC Metz | Lens | €3.5M | €3.5M |
| 22 Jan 2016 | RFC Seraing | FC Metz | Free / loan | €175k |
| 13 Aug 2015 | FC Metz | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Metz B | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Metz U19 | FC Metz B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.