Habib Diallo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Habib Diallo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1911 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1911 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €812k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -84% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 1911 | 62% | 4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.53 | 1496 | 1225 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 2880 | 84% | 20 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 1434 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 31 | 1536 | 45% | 11 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 1421 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2333 | 68% | 9 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 1430 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 4 | 141 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 1631 | 1341 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 26 | 2200 | 87% | 12 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.82 | 1443 | 1345 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1398 | 1278 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 19 | 823 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 1416 | 1336 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 3 | 160 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Lesoimier Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Filippo Falco Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Adrien Hunou Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Milan Djuric Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Gianluca Lapadula Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.7M | fell |
| Alfredo Donnarumma Serie A · 2020 | 30 | €4.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Assan Ceesay Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2025 | Al-Shabab | FC Metz | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Damac FC | Al-Shabab | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Al-Shabab | Damac FC | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 13 Aug 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Al-Shabab | €18.0M | €18.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | FC Metz | R. Strasbourg | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Stade Brestois | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 25 Aug 2017 | FC Metz | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Stade Brestois | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | FC Metz | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Metz B | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2013 | Génération Foot | FC Metz B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.