Gauthier Hein
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gauthier Hein's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.88x the positional average in the league (2355 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2355 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.57
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.76
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -68% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | AM | 29 | 2355 | 77% | 8 | 7 | 0.57 | 0.76 | 1466 | 1225 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RW | 35 | 1883 | 55% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 1459 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RW | 3 | 81 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1458 | 1278 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RW | 13 | 517 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 1431 | 1336 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Culio Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Hernani Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fayçal Fajr Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €4.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Florian Tardieu Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Murat Yildirim Super Lig · 2015 | 28 | €2.2M | €300k | fell |
| Marco Mancosu Serie A · 2020 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Jasmin Kurtic Serie A · 2019 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mehdi Mostefa Ligue 1 · 2014 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2024 | AJ Auxerre | FC Metz | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Metz | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €650k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Valenciennes FC | FC Metz | Free / loan | €650k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | FC Metz | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Tours FC | FC Metz | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Aug 2017 | FC Metz | Tours FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Metz B | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.