Dan Nlundulu

27 yrs · Striker · England
St. Mirren FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€350k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€124k – €334k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€546k – €797k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€227k – €459k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€212k – €674k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€124k – €334k
Model value (performance-implied)€546k – €797k
Projected value (24 months)€227k – €459k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dan Nlundulu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1546 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 88

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average20.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €237k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationNeutral+4% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1546 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.35
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
20 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1102
Opponent strength
1203
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€227k – €459k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -36% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1546 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
12 (ATT)
Relative output kept
75%–114%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST27154652%300.170.35120311020.31
2020/21Southampton FCPremier LeagueST131023%000.000.57162914681.19

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC213911—
2022/23Fa CupCheltenham Town15200—
2021/22Fa CupLincoln City218000—
2020/21Fa CupSouthampton FC310310—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Vladyslav Sharay
Premier Liga · 2024
27€300k€500krose
Imed Louati
Superliga · 2020
27€300k€300kflat
Pyry Soiri
Superliga · 2020
26€475k€300kfell
Konstantinos Doumtsios
Super League 1 · 2023
26€350k€350kflat
Denys Bezborodko
Premier Liga · 2024
30€500k€150kfell
Moryké Fofana
Super Lig · 2021
30€700k€450kfell
Sotiris Tsiloulis
Super League 1 · 2020
25€325k€250kfell
Jonathan Bolingi
Super Lig · 2021
27€400k€600krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026St. MirrenWithout ClubUnknown€350k
1 Sept 2025BoltonSt. MirrenUnknown€350k
31 May 2025Cambridge Utd.BoltonFree / loan€350k
30 Aug 2024BoltonCambridge Utd.Free / loan€400k
1 Jul 2023SouthamptonBoltonFree / loan€900k
31 May 2023BoltonSouthamptonFree / loan€900k
9 Jan 2023SouthamptonBoltonFree / loan€1.2M
8 Jan 2023CheltenhamSouthamptonFree / loan€1.2M
4 Jul 2022SouthamptonCheltenhamFree / loan€1.2M
31 May 2022CheltenhamSouthamptonFree / loan€1.5M
6 Jan 2022SouthamptonCheltenhamFree / loan€1.5M
5 Jan 2022Lincoln CitySouthamptonFree / loan€1.5M
14 Jul 2021SouthamptonLincoln CityFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2020Southampt. U23SouthamptonUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Southampton U18Southampt. U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Southampton AcaSouthampton U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Chelsea YouthSouthampton AcaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.