
Dan Nlundulu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dan Nlundulu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1546 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €237k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1546 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1203
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €227k – €459k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -36% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1546 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 27 | 1546 | 52% | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 1203 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2020/21 | Southampton FC | Premier League | ST | 13 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1629 | 1468 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 139 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Cheltenham Town | 1 | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Lincoln City | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 103 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladyslav Sharay Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €500k | rose |
| Imed Louati Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Pyry Soiri Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €475k | €300k | fell |
| Konstantinos Doumtsios Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Denys Bezborodko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Moryké Fofana Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Sotiris Tsiloulis Super League 1 · 2020 | 25 | €325k | €250k | fell |
| Jonathan Bolingi Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €400k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | St. Mirren | Without Club | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Bolton | St. Mirren | Unknown | €350k |
| 31 May 2025 | Cambridge Utd. | Bolton | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Bolton | Cambridge Utd. | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Southampton | Bolton | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 May 2023 | Bolton | Southampton | Free / loan | €900k |
| 9 Jan 2023 | Southampton | Bolton | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 8 Jan 2023 | Cheltenham | Southampton | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Southampton | Cheltenham | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 May 2022 | Cheltenham | Southampton | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Jan 2022 | Southampton | Cheltenham | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 5 Jan 2022 | Lincoln City | Southampton | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Jul 2021 | Southampton | Lincoln City | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Southampt. U23 | Southampton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Southampton U18 | Southampt. U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Southampton Aca | Southampton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Chelsea Youth | Southampton Aca | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.