Giovani Lo Celso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giovani Lo Celso's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-12.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1397 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.9M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1397 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -63% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1397 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | AM | 24 | 1397 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 1465 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | AM | 25 | 1454 | 43% | 8 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.53 | 1500 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 22 | 494 | 14% | 2 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1639 | 1588 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | AM | 22 | 1128 | 33% | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 1518 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | SS | 16 | 1041 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.37 | 1542 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | AM | 9 | 233 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1672 | 1659 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | AM | 18 | 950 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1548 | 1647 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 28 | 1487 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1569 | 1630 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2400 | 70% | 9 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 1557 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | DM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1386 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 1768 | 52% | 4 | 5 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 1437 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | AM | 4 | 81 | 2% | 0 | 2 | 2.22 | 0.25 | 1324 | 1757 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 321 | 1 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 1 | 60 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 524 | 0 | 0 | 1840 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1334 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 88 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 342 | 2 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 166 | 2 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 334 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 332 | 1 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 563 | 5 | 1 | 1515 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 525 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 150 | 0 | 2 | 1753 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shinji Kagawa Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €13.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Mehmet Topuz Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €4.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Michel Bastos Bundesliga · 2013 | 30 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Spinazzola Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Kim Källström Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mario Suárez Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Matías Fernández Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Danny Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Tottenham | Real Betis | €5.0M | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Villarreal | Tottenham | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Tottenham | Villarreal | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Villarreal | Tottenham | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Tottenham | Villarreal | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Real Betis | Tottenham | €32.0M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Tottenham | Real Betis | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Real Betis | Tottenham | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PSG | Real Betis | €22.0M | €50.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Real Betis | PSG | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | PSG | Real Betis | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Rosario Central | PSG | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 27 Jul 2016 | PSG | Rosario Central | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 26 Jul 2016 | Rosario Central | PSG | €10.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ro. Central U20 | Rosario Central | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.