Lucas Ahijado
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Ahijado's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €320k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1092 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €226k – €585k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -63% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1092 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | RB | 20 | 1092 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 1507 | 1294 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandro Liga Portugal · 2013 | 31 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Marek Cech Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Kaspars Gorkss Premier League · 2013 | 32 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2022 | 33 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Miguel Flaño Laliga · 2017 | 33 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Rovérsio Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Matteo Ciofani Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Felipe Saad Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Oviedo Vetusta | Real Oviedo | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Oviedo U19 | Oviedo Vetusta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.